As with many areas in California, the inventory of properties for sale is currently pretty low. As of today, there are only 111 condos and 40 homes for sale in Mammoth Lakes. We have not seen this kind of a ‘drought’ since 2006, the last time the market was “hot.”
As you can see from the Graph #1 below, inventory levels (green line indicates # of condos, homes and lots for sale) grew to their highest levels in August 2007 with 315 condos and 107 homes on the market. Inventory remained high while the market was bad from middle of 2006 until middle of 2009. When people started buying again in 2009, inventory dropped and we returned to a seasonal market with inventory going up in spring (see the peaks in summer 2010 and 2011) and declining in winter.
REO’s / Short Sales: Even the inventory of foreclosures and short sales has dried up. The most amount of condo REO’s on our market at one time was 16 back in spring 2011. The height for short sale condos was 39 back in summer 2009. We currently have 5 foreclosures and 5 short sales in the condo segment. (There is only 1 single family home foreclosure right now and no short sales).
Supply: When the market tanked in ’08, sales were very slow and our supply (defined by inventory divided by sales pace) slowed to 48 months for condos. This means that it would take 48 months at that slow sales pace to sell all of the condos on the market. In contrast, the quickest supply was down to 1 month in November 2005 and it is currently 4.1 months.
Our numbers actually mirror the national supply numbers. The National Association of Realtors reported a supply of 4.4 months at the end of December 2012, which is the lowest supply since May 2005 when it was 4.3 months.
Prices: Prices in certain segments have started rising a little bit. The $/sqft on Intrawest condos at The Village, Westin and JSL/Sunstone peaked at $925/sqft in 2007 and dropped to $375/sqft in 2012 (a 60% drop). See Graph #2 below. So far in 2013, it is inching up to $377/sqft. Anecdotally, we are seeing emails from other agents trying to fish out listings for buyers who are anxious for units at The Westin (which has been getting excellent rental income) and for homes right by the slopes.
So, it has been turning from a buyers’ market to a sellers’ market. If a property is priced appropriately, it gets lots of attention and usually gets multiple offers and sells quickly. And negotiations for other things like requests for repairs and other concessions during escrows are tipping back toward the seller. The sentiment is that we have hit the bottom of this real estate cycle and there is urgency to get in while prices (and interest rates!) are still low.
If you are a buyer, keep a watchful eye on your favorite Realtor’s website. Sites like Zillow and Trulia often have outdated information and old listings. It is best to go right to the source; the MLS Search on our website is updated daily with the most accurate information on all of our listings in Mammoth and surrounding areas.
If you are a seller, congratulations…you survived the downturn and may start to see an increase in the equity of your property. If interested in getting our opinion of what your property is worth, email us the basic details on your property. And if you are seriously thinking about selling, talk to us; we can go over our marketing package and perform a Comparative Market Analysis on your property to further dial in a value.
In the meantime, the snow quality has been excellent on the ski resort. Both of us need to get out there more!
Dennis & Tara