Condo Prices on Decline?, Homes Increase Slightly as of Mid-2015


Looking at a graph of $/sqft for condos sold in Mammoth Lakes since late 2011, we first see the dip down to the bottom of our recent real estate market in 2012, then an increase in 2013 that we all felt and enjoyed, and then a stalling out (and even a little decrease in Q2 2015) of prices to our current market.



When prices were increasing in 2013, it encouraged many sellers to put their properties on the market and to choose list prices that were ahead of the curve, thinking that prices would eventually catch up to them.

However, it may have backfired and soured the taste of many buyers.  In addition, the fourth year of our drought and subpar ski conditions may have put the brakes on our local real estate recovery.  It will be interesting to see if the current trend of decreasing $/sqft continues or not.

Caveats: Price per square foot is not always the best indicator of value, as there is a wide range of values.  However, when we separate out Intrawest properties (often 80% higher $/sqft) from non-Intrawest properties, we still see the same trend.  But if we break it down even further by area of town, we see that The Village, Snowcreek, golf course properties and Canyon Lodge properties are not declining in $/sqft and are actually increasing.

The other areas of town (main street, Old Mammoth, and surprisingly, Juniper Springs Resort), all peaked in 2014 and have decreased since then.  There have been a few short sales in Juniper Springs Lodge lately that may be contributing to this phenomenon.



Tn the single family home market, average price per square foot has increased among all price segments up to $2M (see graph).  However, the rate of increases (except for the low end of the price spectrum) has been slowing since the rapid increase felt from 2012 to 2013.

$/sqft Homes - Jul 2015

$/sqft Homes – Jul 2015


Why?  Again, we believe it is due to the subpar ski conditions at Mammoth Mountain for the past four years.  With El Nino currently in effect this summer, everyone is hopeful that this trend will reverse.